Home > Market Research > Health Products > The Diabetes Market Outlook to 2011
Diabetes mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder that is caused by a failure of the body to produce insulin and/or an inability of the body to respond adequately to circulating insulin; type 1 diabetes occurs most often in children or young adults and accounts for 5-10% of the diagnosed diabetes patient population. Type 2 diabetes, or adult-onset diabetes, accounts for 90–95% of diagnosed diabetes cases worldwide, typically developing in middle-aged adults. There are several risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes including age, obesity, high blood pressure, genetics, level of exercise, and a history of cardiac disease.
Type 2 diabetes is more prevalent than type 1 and is growing at a faster rate across the 7 major markets, with a forecast prevalence of 49.2m people in 2011, compared to 39.4m people in 2005. Drivers for increased type 2 prevalence include the aging demographic profile and an increase in obesity. Diabetes is the sixth leading cause of death in the US (based on number of death certificates, NIDDK).
The global diabetes market was worth $18.6bn in 2005, which was an 11.5% increase from 2004 sales of $16.6bn. The US has the dominant share in the global diabetes market, with 49.6% of 2005 global sales. The large US market share is mainly due to the large population and the high prevalence of diabetes, the increasing incidence of diabetes associated with Western diets and an aging population. OADs represent 58% of the global diabetes market in 2005, with the remainder of sales being from insulins and analogs (40.1%) and other drugs with 1.9%. However, insulins and analogs have seen the largest sales growth at 17.3% in 2005. There has been a high level of innovation in drug delivery technology within the diabetes market during 2005-6. Key events include advances in inhaled insulins, funding into insulin pills, patch technology and pain free needles for injection.
The top 10 leading antidiabetic brands consist of 6 OADs (Actos, Avandia, Amaryl, Basen, metformin HCl, and Avandamet) and 4 insulins (Lantus, Humalog, NovoLog/NovoRapid and Novolin 70/30/actraphane).
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary 12
Patient potential 12
Global market analysis 13
Analysis of potential future blockbusters 14
Leading players in the global diabetes market 15
Chapter 1 Patient potential 18
Summary 18
Introduction 19
Disease description 19
Type 1 diabetes 19
Type 2 diabetes 21
Diabetic complications 23
Prevalence of diabetes 24
Type 1 25
Type 2 25
Incidence 26
Mortality 27
Diagnosis 28
Treatment 29
Chapter 2 Global market analysis 34
Summary 34
Introduction 35
Market analysis by country 35
Anti-diabetic licensing trends 38
Antidiabetic drug classes 39
Leading brands in the global diabetes market 40
Key events in the global diabetes market, 2005-6 43
Introduction 43
Product launches and discontinued products 43
Reported side effects of marketed drugs 44
Innovation in glucose testing 44
Cell transplantation and innovative therapies 45
Innovation in drug delivery technology 47
The insulin market 49
Human insulins 51
Fast-acting insulin analogs 51
Intermediate insulin analogs 53
Long-acting insulin analogs 54
Intermediate and fast-acting insulin analogs 56
Intermediate and long-acting insulin analogs 58
Animal insulins 59
Insulin devices 60
Sales forecast for human insulin and analogs 60
Oral anti-diabetics (OADs) 62
Thiazolidiniones (TZDs) 63
Sulfonylureas 65
Biguanides 67
Combined sulphonylurea and biguanide antidiabetics 68
Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors 70
Thiozolidiniones (TZDs) and other oral antidiabetics 72
Other oral antidiabetics 74
Sales forecast for OADs 75
Other drugs 77
Chapter 3 Analysis of potential future blockbusters 80
Summary 80
Introduction 81
Key trends in R&D 81
Non-invasive human insulin 81
New drug classes in the OAD market 83
Profiles of key insulin pipeline compounds 83
Inhaled Insulins 83
Exubera 84
AERx iDMS 86
AIR 87
Oral insulin 88
Oralin 88
Emisphere Oral insulin 89
HIM2 89
Insulin patches 90
Profiles of key OAD pipeline products 91
Dual PPAR agonists 91
Pargluva 91
GLP-1 agonists and DPP IV agonists 92
Byetta 92
Galvus 92
Sitagliptin 93
Amylinomimetic agents 93
Product forecasts 94
Factors affecting forecasts 94
New product launches 95
Patent expiry dates 96
Clinical trial results 98
Human insulin sales forecasts 99
OAD’s sales forecasts 101
Chapter 4 Leading players in the global
diabetes market 104
Summary 104
Introduction 105
Novo Nordisk 106
Antidiabetic sales focus 107
Marketed product portfolio 108
NovoRapid/ NovoLog 109
Novolin/Insulatard/Actrapid/Mixtard 110
Prandin/NovoNorm 111
Levemir 112
R&D pipeline analysis 112
NovoMix 50 & 70 113
AERx iDMS/ NN1998 113
Strategic analysis 114
Drivers of growth 115
Resistors of growth 116
Takeda 117
Antidiabetic sales focus 117
Marketed diabetes product portfolio 118
Actos 119
Basen 120
TCV-116 121
TAK-428 122
TAK-128 122
Strategic analysis 122
Drivers of growth 123
Resistors of growth 123
Sanofi-Aventis 124
Antidiabetic sales focus 125
Marketed diabetes product portfolio 125
Lantus 126
Amaryl 127
R&D pipeline analysis 129
Acomplia 129
Exubera 130
Strategic analysis 131
Drivers of growth 132
Resistors of growth 132
GlaxoSmithKline 133
Antidiabetic sales focus 133
Marketed product portfolio 134
Avandia 135
Avandamet 136
R&D pipeline analysis 137
Strategic analysis 137
Drivers of growth 138
Resistors of growth 138
Eli Lilly 139
Antidiabetic sales focus 139
Marketed product portfolio 140
Humalog 141
Humulin 142
Actos 143
R&D pipeline analysis 144
Arxxant 144
Pulmonary insulin (AIR) 145
Strategic analysis 146
Drivers of growth 147
Resistors of growth 147
Servier 148
Antidiabetic sales focus 149
Marketed product portfolio 149
Diamicron 150
R&D pipeline analysis 151
S-15261 152
Glufast 152
Strategic analysis 152
Drivers of growth 153
Resistors of growth 153
Merck KGaA 154
Antidiabetic sales focus 155
Marketed product portfolio 155
Glucophage 156
Glucophage XR 157
Glucovance 157
R&D pipeline analysis 158
Strategic analysis 159
Drivers of growth 159
Resistors of growth 159
Bayer 160
Antidiabetic sales focus 160
Marketed product portfolio 161
Precose 162
R&D pipeline analysis 163
Strategic analysis 163
Drivers of growth 163
Resistors of growth 163
Novartis 164
Antidiabetic sales focus 164
Marketed product portfolio 165
Starlix 166
Metformin HCl 166
R&D pipeline analysis 166
Galvus 166
Strategic analysis 167
Drivers of growth 167
Resistors of growth 167
Bristol-Myers Squibb 168
Antidiabetic sales focus 169
Marketed product portfolio 169
R&D pipeline analysis 170
Pargluva 171
Strategic analysis 171
Drivers of growth 171
Resistors of growth 171
Chapter 5 Appendix 174
IMS data 174
Index 175
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Estimated number of new cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in people aged 20 or over, by age group in the US, 2005 27
Figure 1.2: Diabetes mortality in the US, 1999-2003 28
Figure 2.3: Global diabetes market share by geography, 2005 37
Figure 2.4: Sales of types of antidiabetic brands, 2004-5 38
Figure 2.5: Breakdown of global diabetes sales by drug class, 2004-5 39
Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of the leading 10 brands in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 42
Figure 2.7: Innovation in drug delivery technology, 2005-6 47
Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the global insulin market, 2004-5 50
Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of OADs in the global diabetes 62
Figure 3.10: Positive and negative factors affecting forecasted sales of antidiabetics 94
Figure 3.11: Expected patent expiry dates for major antidiabetics in the US, Japan and EU, 2006-2015 97
Figure 4.12: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global diabetes market, 2005 105
Figure 4.13: Novo Nordisk’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 107
Figure 4.14: Takeda’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 118
Figure 4.15: Sanofi-Aventis’ antidiabetic sales, 2005 125
Figure 4.16: GSK’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 134
Figure 4.17: Lilly’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 140
Figure 4.18: Servier’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 149
Figure 4.19: Merck KGaA’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 155
Figure 4.20: Bayer’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 161
Figure 4.21: Novartis’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 165
Figure 4.22: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s antidiabetic sales, 2005 169
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obese adults by country, 2005-11 22
Table 1.2: Prevalence of Type 1 & 2 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2004-5 24
Table 1.3: Prevalence of Type 1 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2005-11 25
Table 1.4: Prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2005-11 26
Table 2.5: Global diabetes market sales by country/region, 2001-5 36
Table 2.6: Leading brands in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 41
Table 2.7: Characteristics of the key types of insulin 51
Table 2.8: Fast-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 52
Table 2.9: Intermediate insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 53
Table 2.10: Long-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 55
Table 2.11: Intermediate and fast-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 57
Table 2.12: Intermediate and long-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 59
Table 2.13: Insulin devices in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 60
Table 2.14: Human insulin and analogs sales forecast, 2005-11 61
Table 2.15: Thiazolidiniones in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 63
Table 2.16: Sulfonylureas in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 65
Table 2.17: Biguanides in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 67
Table 2.18: Combined sulphonylurea and biguanide antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 69
Table 2.19: Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 71
Table 2.20: Glitazone and other oral antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 73
Table 2.21: Other oral antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 74
Table 2.22: OAD sales forecast, 2005-11 76
Table 2.23: Other drugs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 77
Table 3.24: Expected product launch dates, 2005-11 95
Table 3.25: Current diabetes trials, 2000-9 99
Table 3.26: Human insulin and analogs sales forecast, 2005-11 100
Table 3.27: OAD sales forecast, 2005-11 102
Table 4.28: Leading players in the global diabetes market, 2004-5 106
Table 4.29: Novo Nordisk’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 108
Table 4.30: Novo Nordisk’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 113
Table 4.31: Takeda’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 118
Table 4.32: Takeda’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 121
Table 4.33: Sanofi-Aventis’ diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 126
Table 4.34: Sanofi-Aventis’ diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 129
Table 4.35: GSK’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 135
Table 4.36: GSK’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 137
Table 4.37: Lilly’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 141
Table 4.38: Lilly’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 144
Table 4.39: Servier’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 150
Table 4.40: Servier’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 151
Table 4.41: Merck KGaA’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 156
Table 4.42: Merck KGaA’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006 158
Table 4.43: Bayer’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 161
Table 4.44: Bayer’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 163
Table 4.45: Novartis’ diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 165
Table 4.46: Novartis’ diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 166
Table 4.47: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5 170
Table 4.48: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006 170
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